# What Happens When Friends Turn Into Rivals? India’s Middle East Oil Problem Explained

**URL:** https://community.aliceblueonline.com/t/what-happens-when-friends-turn-into-rivals-india-s-middle-east-oil-problem-explained/13603
**Category:** General
**Created:** [June 23, 2025, 11:23am UTC](https://community.aliceblueonline.com/t/what-happens-when-friends-turn-into-rivals-india-s-middle-east-oil-problem-explained/13603 "2025-06-23T11:23:42Z")
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### Author: ![community\_admin](https://sea1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/user_avatar/community.aliceblueonline.com/community_admin/32/5185_2.png) [@community\_admin](https://community.aliceblueonline.com/u/community_admin)
#### Post date: [June 23, 2025, 11:23am UTC](https://community.aliceblueonline.com/t/what-happens-when-friends-turn-into-rivals-india-s-middle-east-oil-problem-explained/13603/1 "2025-06-23T11:23:42Z")

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The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea route between Iran and Oman, but it’s one of the most important places in the world for oil. About 21% of the world’s oil passes through here, and for India, this route is vital, as nearly 40-45% of its oil imports come through this path, mainly from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.

 ![Oil](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex015/uploads/aliceblueonline/original/2X/2/247d648ef909eafd1a6384d2b53f3b5857452886.jpeg)

India buys 85% of the oil it needs from other countries, using around 5 million barrels every day. Almost half of this oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If this route gets blocked or disrupted, India could face a serious energy crisis. Even though India has built emergency oil reserves, they would only last about 10–12 days.

Right now (June 2025), oil prices are about $75–80 per barrel, but if the Strait is blocked, prices could jump 30–50% quickly, reaching $105–120 per barrel. If the situation gets worse, prices might go above $150, like in the 2008 oil crisis. When oil prices go up by just $10, India’s yearly trade deficit can grow by $12–15 billion.

If this happens:  
✅ Petrol and diesel prices in India could rise by ₹20–30 per liter.  
✅ Inflation (price rise of goods and services) will hit everything, since transport costs affect all industries.  
✅ The rupee will fall in value against the dollar as India will need more foreign currency to pay for expensive oil.

To prepare for this, India is:  
✅ Buying more oil from places like Africa, the Americas, and Russia.  
✅ Building bigger emergency reserves.  
✅ Speeding up the use of solar, wind, and hydrogen energy.

For Indian businesses, this would mean:  
✅ Higher operating costs.  
✅ Lower profits.  
✅ Possible supply disruptions.

But there’s a silver lining: this may push India faster towards energy independence with more investment in clean energy.

Disclaimer: [LinkedIn](http://lnkd.in/gJJDnvn2)